Much of the northern Geelong coast is under private ownership (the port and Shell site). The Moorpanyal Park reserve is a high cliff area and may require geotechnical assessment in future to determine slope stability, at present there is little erosion risk. Further north along Shell Parade, the inundation vulnerability is mostly to the road and narrow strips of saline vegetation. With sea-level rise these habitats are likely to be lost in the long term as there is limited space for the shoreline and habitats to move back. There are a number of outfalls along this coast which are also likely to be impacted by rising tide levels. Similarly, the shoreline habitats along Hovell Creek may be lost in future due to rising sea-levels and a lack of appropriately elevated hinterland. There are large areas of undeveloped land along the banks of the creek, however the change in elevation between the creek and the hinterland is quite significant, and it is very unlikely the frequency of inundation required to allow new saline habitats to establish would occur in the next 100 years.

Avalon is very low and flat. There is a narrow strip of elevated foreshore and dune area that the road runs along which is at present acting as a levee, however not forming a consistent barrier. The properties along Avalon Beach are likely to be impacted in a 1% AEP event for present day sea-levels; however the flooding would be via isolated breaches and low sections in the foreshore / levee, therefore the flood levels may not be less significant. The impacts of a 1% AEP event with 0.2 m SLR may be enough to breach the elevated shoreline, more widely therefore would be a more significant inundation extent. Planning and management of the risk of this area may be required now, however, due to the nature of the environment and the flood mechanisms, risk mitigation (which will most likely be retreat) could be delayed for a number of years. This is similar for the locations further east where inundation may occur under present day conditions in a 1% AEP event, however, the consequences of inundation would likely be low, so the areas would have a low risk.

The management triggers are presented in Table 6-22. As previously mentioned, although large areas are likely to be impacted in a 1% AEP event under present day sea-levels, the perceived risk of these areas is low. Investigation of management options would be required in the near future; however the priority of this would also be low. Habitat resilience in the short-term is likely to be sufficient to withstand infrequent flood events, but should be assessed for long-term implications.

Table 6-22     Management triggers – North Corio Bay to Point Wilson