The north Corio Bay area is a very low-energy environment. The shoreline is a combination of cliffs, rocky foreshores with very narrow beach widths and low angle fine grained sediment beaches with little to no dune formation. There is minimal sediment transport in this area due a lack of material and low wave action. The Avalon area is a relict saltpan site and has levees enclosing the low-lying hinterland areas behind the beach. The levees are no longer maintained and in various states of disrepair.

Due to the low complexity of the flooding mechanisms, static modelling was used to calculate inundation.

The results of the inundation assessment for the Shell Foreshore are in Figure 6-41. There is a small increase in flooding of the low-lying foreshore and along the drainage channels. The inundation hazard here is mostly to the road and stormwater infrastructure.

Saline Inundation at Limeburners Lagoon is of low significance and is shown in Figure 6-42. The ground elevations are low along the floodplain of Hovell Creek and the lagoon; however the floodplain is bounded by a steep rise to higher land limiting the inundation extent. The areas likely to be impacted are mostly the riparian habitats, with some potential impacts to Foreshore Road. The creek passes beneath the Princes Highway, however, the flood extents determined (based on the 2007 LiDAR, but with water ways inserted) do not take into account the bridge over the creek, thus show flooding of the highway, which is incorrect.

Inundation of Avalon Beach is shown in Figure 6-43. There are extensive areas of inundation of the relict saltpans under present day sea-levels including the southern section of Avalon Road. This is of little consequence in terms of flood-risk management, however, will have implications for the saline habitats that have taken over the area since decommissioning of the salt works. The levees fronting the area will provide some additional protection, however, they do not form consistent barrier. Under the higher sea-level rise scenarios, there is inundation of some salt pans in the west adjacent to Avalon Road.

East of Point Lillias, there are extensive areas which will be inundated under present-day sea-levels in a 1% AEP event. The embayment east of Point Lillias will be inundated at a sea-level rise of 0.5 m and additional areas are inundated further east as sea-level rises.

Inundation for Point Wilson is shown in Figure 6-44. There are extensive areas of the foreshore that are likely to be inundated under present-day sea-levels in a 1% AEP event. The land adjacent to the Point Wilson jetty access road is inundated and the road cut under a 1% AEP event with a sea-level rise of 0.8 m. Further north there is a low-lying area which will be inundated; however this is outside the study area.